5 “Moneyball”secrets that will get you to the Premier League
Brentford FC wrapped up their first ever season in the Premier League last weekend, and sit confidently in a mid table position. While mid table is nothing to brag about, this team's rise through the ranks have been truly remarkable. As of 2013, Brentford competed in League One (the UK’s third division). They were only promoted to the Premier League through the Championship division last season (2020/21), and as of now, they are in the Premier League to stay.
Flicking on the T.V. to watch the Brentford Bees, a team of nobodies takes the field. Usually watching teams compete in the Premier League, it's not difficult for me to recognize a few players on each team, yet the only player worthy of recognition on Brentford is Christian Eriksen, a talented Danish footballer, who suffered from Cardiac Arrest at the 2021 Euros (which is noteworthy in understanding his move to Brentford).
The man in charge, and the man responsible for this historic rise is Mathew Benham. Now the official owner of the West London club, Benham has succeeded in transforming the way we look at football, using "Moneyball" principles to not only save a club, but put them in a great position of the Premier League. Here are the top 5 secrets we can take away from Benham's philosophy:
Collecting Data
Mathew Benham did not start in football. With a physics degree from the University of Oxford and twelve years of experience in finance, including the title as VP of Bank of America, Benham only got involved in sports as of 2001, where he accepted a job at Premier Bet, a professional sports betting company. It was at Premier Bet that Benham learned about the crossover between data and sport under professional better and Brighton Hove & Albion’s owner, Tony Bloom. A fallout between the two would eventually lead to Benham's own creation of a betting syndicate in 2004, called Smartodds. A successful venture, Benham applied data and stategic analytics to the soccer world, and in 2007, when Brentford FC faced financial disaster, Benham came to the rescue with a loan and the proposition of ownership.
If there is a specific strong suit of Benham’s, it is his understanding of how to collect, observe, and logically analyze data, while making reasonable inferences based on that data. According to James Tippett’s The Football Code, the collection of a league’s data is an underestimated advantage that Benham applied. Data specific to a certain league not only gives teams a superior background knowledge of trends in the league but an advantage of where they can capitalize on opportunities in playing style and player recruitment. By understanding the trends of the league that your team is playing in, you can better define your team's metrics for success. Benham first used FC Midtjylland in the Danish League as a test model to collect data and apply his ideas. What we find is that there is a whole new library of statistics being recorded, and ultimately, used to asses a player's real value. Average statistics on goal, crosses, and tackles is not enough. One of the most impactful of these new statistics, or Key Performance Indicators, is Expected Goals.
Expected Goals (XG)
An expected goal is the probability of whether a given shot will result in a goal. It shows us, accurately, how good a shooting chance is. Simple right ? Well, it’s about to get a little more complicated. The metric for a player or team’s expected goals is calculated by comparing a single shot to thousands of shots recorded earlier on, based on factors such as distance, position of defenders, type and speed of pass, shot angle and various other aspects. This is why the overall collection of a league’s data is so important. This is also why the value of an expected goal may differ in each league. Statisticians sit in dark rooms, their pupils fixated on football, assigning a value to each shot and every shot dependent on an entire foundation of likely and less likely shots. A shot from the center top of the 6 yard box may have an XG of 0.94, while a shot from the top of the 18 yard box may have an XG of 0.62.
The reassuring part is IT IS working. Brentford are just one of the few examples to use the metric of expected goals to improve as a team. It can become very valuable when self reflecting on the team’s performance. How many chances were created? How great was the chance? What was the expected goal metric ? If a team racks up an expected goal count of 2.5 and has scored 2 goals in the game, that may be an accurate reflection of the team’s chances. If the same team produces the same expected goal count but only scores 1, at least, objectively, chances are being created, just without execution.
This specific statistic can be even more valuable when assessing a player’s value. Take a professional striker like Gabriel Jesus at Man City, who is currently worth 50 million euros. Instead of making an over valued investment in Jesus, could a scout rather recruit three lower budget, and lower tier players that could equal Jesus’ expected goal average ? This is the part that starts to sound a lot like “Moneyball”
Buy Low, Sell high
Another very important detail that mirrors Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s, is the principle of making a profit. While many sports franchises are, essentially, businesses, it does not mean that they are run like businesses. Most soccer clubs don’t actually profit. Instead, they are notorious for spending more than they can make and accumulating massive amounts of debt only for wealthy investors and moguls to bury them out later down the road.
Benham’s model treats players like investments and finds real value in profiting off of them. Although the methods of big name signings has become such a common practice for clubs at big statures, including most MLS clubs, Brentford is not a club to buy big named players for high prices. Instead, it is up to recruiting staff at Brentford to scout undervalued talent and sell them down the road. Brentford’s record of transfers has many similarities to a Fortune 500’s income statement. They have made billions.
Take Christian Eriksen for example. As of 2021, Erikson’s value on the transfer market was around 25 million euros. After a heart attack and death scare on the world stage, and future failed medical tests, Eriksen’s stock was uncertain. This proved a great opportunity for Brentford to capitalize, finding a way to sign Erikson while the rest of the world was uncertain. Brentford were also committed to putting in the work to support Erikson medically off the field, well aware that the club’s Danish influence would help ease Erikson back in to the game.
I believe Brentford’s commitment to Eriksen will pay off and the Bees will cash in on a worthy investment, like they have done so many times before. Overall, A profitable club ensures stability, credibility, and guarantees the resources to succeed in the future.
A Change in structure
During his time in charge, Benham has not been afraid to challenge the status quo. His background in finance and data has given him an advantage to approach many things with a rational mind. Again, the goal is to produce profit, produce a return on investment. In the wise word of DJ Quick, “If it don’t make dollars, it don’t make sense.” One giant segment of the club that was not a sound investment were the youth academies. While some players would grow into professionals that the club could make a profit off of, it was very clear that most players would not. Therefore, the youth academies were disbanded under Benham. Instead, they rely on a B team of 17 - 20 year olds. In a sense, this is a much more efficient and sustainable structure. Although different from most clubs, it has proved to work.
With this said, Benham also relies on the Danish, FC Midtjylland as a pipeline for players. Seen almost as a partnership between the clubs, Brentford is able to keep players on the radar and ensure the development of younger player through the Danish league. Another key detail in determining a player’s value is time. The recruitment personnel of this system believe that it takes roughly 35 games to determine a player’s real value. Again, an unconventional idea, but such a game changer to how thing operate in the soccer world. If more times is what it takes to determine a worthy investment, then more time is what players are given.
A superior staff
On the subject of player recruitment, Lee Dykes directs and oversees the acquisition of players not just between the English and the Danish club, but undervalued players all over the world. He emphasizes that every single position is looked at differently and he is constantly observing whether players can fit an exact role.
Luke Stopforth is Head of Data and Technology, analyzing the first team’s match performances, and Bernardo Cueva works hand in hand as a Tactical Statistician. While making an impact on the field, numbers and data don’t just apply to the soccer, but the smaller details off the field, like sleep and nutrition. That is why Brentford have hired Chris Halam as Head of Athletic Performance and Neil Greig, Head of Medical. These staff members ensure players are fully fit when it comes time to perform. Thomas Frank leads the Bees as Head Coach on the field.
Ultimately, it is not just Benham’s philosophy that directly impacts the team. Although a driving force from the start, the investment on a quality, well rounded staff that believes in the power of data is absolutely what allows the Brentford Bees to continue to thrive.
I’m excited to watch Brentford next season, and I wonder if their philosophy as a small town club will continue as they grow larger. One of the best ideas behind the game is the idea of an underdog. Brentford FC, using data and analytics, have proven to be that underdog, finding it’s way to the top by outsmarting competitors. I’m not surprised to see other clubs, including clubs in Major League Soccer use Benham’s principles. Are we experiencing a statistical renaissance in the soccer world ? Who knows, let’s just keep watching!
